The market is long and short, and the price of Ferro-nickel may continue to fall. [SMM Nickel Weekly selection]

"SMM Nickel Industry chain Weekly report" is released. SMM will select hot topics, prices, quotations or major changes in the industry chain and release information for your reference.

The following is an excerpt from the weekly report of the SMM nickel industry chain:

The price of nickel is basically around 148000 this week, the market is divided between long and short, and the long logic may still be in the low inventory of nickel around the world and the big cycle of new energy in the stock market is not over yet. The short logic is that the expected output of nickel sulfate fell month-on-month in December, although it did not fall much, but in the context of the previous high growth rate of nickel sulfate, the slowdown will to some extent suppress the price of nickel to hit a new high. Another negative point is that ferronickel prices are likely to continue to fall in the near future.

From the perspective of the lower space, the current nickel price to do short-term configuration, it seems that long space is not as good as short space. Therefore, on the whole, nickel will follow up around 14 to 150000 box shocks, and whether it is an upside or downside breakthrough, the market needs more news that can affect fundamental expectations.

Stainless steel SS contract slightly stronger this week, SS2112 contract up to 19200 yuan / ton near, to the spot price reached rising water, the SS2201 contract price difference continues to maintain more than 1000 yuan / ton. However, the strength of stainless steel contracts is more due to the overall market sentiment and the limitation of stainless steel warehouse receipt delivery, while the current demand for stainless steel has not improved, and the expected consumption trend is still weak, which is not enough to support the upward price of stainless steel.

At present, from the perspective of the fundamentals of stainless steel itself, the contradiction between supply and demand is slightly prominent, entering the traditional off-season, consumption is expected to decline, superimposed by the impact of late holiday factors, the demand is expected to decrease; while on the supply side, steel mills are gradually resuming production, and supply is expected to increase, so the pressure on the stainless steel market increases. And the price of raw materials at the cost side has fallen, and the downward movement of costs has weakened the supporting force of stainless steel, so it is expected that the stainless steel market is still a weak trend, and the degree of correction driven by emotion is limited. It is estimated that the operating range of SS2201 next week: 16200-18000 yuan / ton.

Looking forward to 2022

What is the impact of power restriction, carbon emission policy and energy consumption double control on stainless steel price industry? How will the stainless steel industry chain change under the influence of the epidemic? How to maintain the value of enterprises in the environment of high fluctuation of raw material prices.

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[China Nickel Industry chain High-end report] China Nickel Industry chain monthly report includes macro interpretation, monthly nickel price review, interpretation of hot events in various sections of the nickel industry chain (nickel ore, electrolytic nickel, nickel pig iron, stainless steel, ferrochromium) and other hot events, future forecasts, and Synchronize releases monthly relevant enterprise operating rate and inventory survey data, covering the entire nickel industry chain.

[China Nickel Industry chain routine report] China Nickel Industry chain Weekly report includes macro interpretation, weekly review of nickel price, market trends of various sections of nickel industry chain (electrolytic nickel, nickel pig iron, stainless steel, ferrochromium), weekly social inventory, future forecast, comprehensive interpretation of the nickel market in the week.